Elections in Brazil: Lula vs. Bolsonaro Jr. final showdown

Meta description: Dia da votação com ~160 milhões aptos; pesquisa indica empate técnico e provável segundo turno em 25/10, com impacto nas relações Brasil-EUA.

The Brazilian presidential election takes place with about 160 million eligible voters, in a race marked by a technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, and with a strong likelihood of a second round on October 25, according to ANSA coverage. The contest this election cycle has both domestic and geopolitical dimensions, including proposals on social rights, security, and international alignments.

Elections 2026: context and voting date

The election, entering its decisive phase on election day, mobilizes approximately 160 million voters, according to ANSA. Polls released in the days leading up to the vote indicate a technical tie between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, broadening the possibility of a second round scheduled for October 25.

The political landscape has become polarized throughout the campaign, with candidates courting votes from specific age groups and in different regions of the country. For readers of Raízes Italianas, who also follow news from Brazil and Italy, electoral movements have echoes in foreign policies and topics affecting migrants and Brazilian descendants in Europe; see more in Vida na Itália and in our Notícias da Itália.

Positions and final messages from the candidates: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

In the final speeches, the two main contenders sought to consolidate bases and win undecided voters.

• Lula, as acting president, focused on contrasting a "democratic revolution" with what he defined as "barbarism" and "fascism", specifically appealing to voters over 70. At a rally on Avenida Paulista, the president sought to move listeners emotionally by asking seniors to vote with their children and grandchildren in mind, and reiterated his call for multilateralism in international relations, according to ANSA.
• Flavio Bolsonaro urged a vote framed as "rebellious" against what he called "the evil" and corruption, defending economic freedom and security. At his events, he denounced groups he labeled as "narco-terrorists" and hinted at potential street incidents if the contest heats up, as reported by ANSA.

These final messages reinforce the polarization observed during the campaign, with emotional and strategic appeals aimed at different demographic and electoral segments.

Geopolitical implications and Brazil-US relations

The presidential race has repercussions beyond domestic politics, affecting Brazil's geopolitical role and future ties with the United States.

• Lula advocates a return to external policy guided by multilateralism and asserted with a tone of independence that Brazil "non sarà mai il cortile di nessuno" (will never be the backyard of anyone), according to ANSA. When reproducing statements, it is recommended to cite the original version or exact translation.
• Flavio Bolsonaro signaled willingness for closer alignment with the U.S. on security and defense; references to specific initiatives (for example, mentions of the term "Scudo delle Americhe") should be attributed to the candidate’s own sources or declarations, since the existence/form of such proposals can be interpretive.

The presidential choice could influence trade negotiations, security cooperation agreements, and migration policies—relevant to Brazilians and descendants living abroad, including those with ties to Italy. For citizenship information and displacement, consult our section on Cidadania Italiana.

Campaign environment: mood, scandals, and risks

The campaign was marked by episodes that heightened public tension:

• Judicial scandals and accusations among leaders;
• Spread of fake news and personal attacks;
• Debates with religious overtones and ideological polarization;
• Signals of threats and concerns about street clashes before and after the vote.

According to ANSA, the sharpened rhetoric in the final hours of the campaign raised the risk of incidents in more polarized areas, keeping leaders and international observers vigilant about maintaining democratic order during the counting.

Relevance for Brazilians and descendants abroad

The result will define not only Brazil's internal political direction but also foreign relations, with direct impacts on trade, mobility, and international cooperation. For Brazilians of Italian origin and their families, a few points to watch:

• Changes in security policies and alliances may alter defense and intelligence cooperation, affecting bilateral agreements;
• Decisions on visas, migration policies, and mobility facilitation should be on the radar for those residing in or seeking to reside in Europe;
• The multilateral agenda or alignment with the U.S. could affect environmental, trade, and citizenship-related topics practiced internationally.

Following developments is important for those with transnational ties; coverage of impacts in Italy and policies of interest to Brazilian descendants regularly appears in our Notícias da Itália.

Conclusion

With a technical tie in polls and a high likelihood of a second round on October 25, the Brazilian race enters a decisive phase with final messages underscoring internal debates on rights and security as well as long-range geopolitical choices. The result will influence the domestic agenda and ties with external partners, including the United States and Italy, and deserves the attention of Brazilians and descendants abroad.

Source: ANSA