Deficit at 3.1% of GDP; Salvini calls for a budget deviation, FI rejects

Meta description: Istat data show a 3.1% deficit in 2025; the government remains under European infringement. Salvini seeks a budget deviation and 8 billion in cash.

Istat pointed to a deficit of 3.1% of GDP for 2025, a figure that keeps Italy above the threshold needed to end the European Union's excessive deficit procedure, according to official data and an ANSA report. The result renewed internal tensions over calls for higher public spending and the government's budget strategy.

Summary of official data: deficit at 3.1% and implications

The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) released the consolidated budget balance for 2025 at 3.1% of GDP, as reported by ANSA on September 22, 2026. This level is not sufficient to satisfy the European Commission's conditions to remove Italy from the excessive deficit procedure, keeping the country on a track of ongoing EU supervision.

According to ANSA, the Istat figure confirms that the government did not achieve the expected deficit reduction for this year, pushing the normalization of public accounts further into the future.

Government stance and ministerial statements

The Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, acknowledged disappointment with the data, noting that there had been an expectation to exit the procedure, but that the Executive accepts the result with “regret.”

“There was a expectation to exit the procedure; we accept the result with regret,” Giorgetti told ANSA.

Giorgetti also indicated that the current goal is to pursue normalization in 2027, meaning bringing public accounts to acceptable levels for the European Commission within a two-year horizon. The minister's message emphasized budget containment combined with a diplomatic-political path with Brussels.

Political reactions: Salvini's request and Forza Italia’s resistance

The response within the coalition was immediate and divided. The leader of the League and minister, Matteo Salvini, called for a budget deviation — an extraordinary spending authorization — arguing that his ministry needs 8 billion euros in cash by year-end to pay for works already carried out. Salvini's demand aims to free resources to fulfill investment commitments and payments to suppliers.

On the other hand, members of Forza Italia (FI) and off-the-record sources from Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) cooled the idea of authorizing the deviation, fearing impacts on fiscal credibility and on the relationship with the European Commission. FI deputy Raffaele Nevi said the government should “continue to manage public finances prudently,” aligning with Giorgetti's more cautious stance, ANSA reported.

The internal dispute exposes a classic tension between pressure to increase immediate spending and the imperative to maintain fiscal discipline to avoid sanctions and preserve market confidence.

Future options for the government: negotiating with the EU and the 2027 calendar

With the deficit at 3.1%, the government's options are limited, according to political analysis cited by ANSA. Among the alternatives:

• Attempt a new negotiation with the European Union to obtain greater maneuvering room on mid-term targets, seeking flexibilities conditioned on reforms or specific measures.
• Authorize a point-in-time budget deviation to meet sectoral demands (infrastructure, transfers), while risking further perceptions of insufficient fiscal discipline before Brussels.
• Maintain containment measures and push back the normalization calendar: the window for exiting the procedure has been pushed to 2027, as indicated by the government itself.

Official sources and the press (ANSA) report that there will be no earlier exit from the procedure, and the political battle now centers on balancing immediate investments with fiscal credibility.

Relevance for Brazilians and descendants of Italians

Budget decisions in Italy and the relationship with the EU reverberate beyond borders: economic and political stability in Italy can influence the euro's value, conditions for resource transfers, and the environment for investment and business. For Brazilians with Italian ties — whether through citizenship, pensions, property, or trade — the developments may affect:

• payment of pensions and public services if austerity measures are maintained;
• investment climate and real estate market if the government expands spending and markets react;
• administrative procedures that depend on budgetary stability and staffing in public agencies, with potential impact on service timelines such as those related to citizenship.

For news on Italy's political and economic developments, follow coverage at Italy News and analyses on living in the country at Life in Italy.

Conclusion

The 3.1% of GDP deficit for 2025, confirmed by Istat and reported by ANSA, keeps Italy under the infringement procedure and intensifies internal debate about the need for a budget deviation to release the 8 billion requested by Salvini. The government says it aims for normalization in 2027, while EU negotiations and decisions on spending authorization will shape the economic and political path in the coming months.

Source: ANSA